Ducks hope to end slide in matchup with slumping Jackets

Hockey Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Anaheim Ducks know that their current seven-game homestand might represent their best chance to get back into the playoff picture. However, after a less-than-stellar start to the residency, they should be happy to see the Columbus Blue Jackets coming to town.

Anaheim aims to snap a three-game losing streak while also handing Columbus a sixth setback in a row tonight at Honda Center.

The Ducks have lost their first three games since the Olympic break (0-2-1), including two straight at home. They saw their franchise-record 11-game home win streak end last Wednesday versus Colorado, and after a road loss to Phoenix on Saturday, Anaheim was upended by Montreal, 4-3, in a shootout at Honda Center on Sunday.

Corey Perry, Lubomir Visnovsky and Scott Niedermayer all scored in the first period to stake the Ducks to an early lead, but the Habs netted the next three goals and forced extra time by scoring twice in the game's final 1:50. Anaheim allowed the game-tying goal with 10.7 ticks left.

"With the way we played early in the game, we should have been able to get these two points [Saturday]," Niedermayer said. "They just hung around and waited for a couple of mistakes. They took advantage of it. It's pretty disappointing right now."

The Ducks nearly prevailed in the shootout, as goaltender Jonas Hiller appeared to have stopped Montreal's Brian Gionta in the third round with his team leading the session. However, Hiller drifted back towards the net on the stop and inadvertently knocked the puck into his own goal.

The officials reviewed the tally, as the whistle had not been blown, and confirmed the call on the ice. After James Wisniewski could not score for the Ducks in the fourth round, Tomas Plekanec fired a wrister past Hiller's glove for the game-winner.

Hiller stopped 40 shots in a hard-luck defeat that has the Ducks six points back of a playoff spot.

Anaheim lost its first two meetings with the Blue Jackets this year, but notched a 3-1 win in Columbus when the teams last met on December 12 to earn its seventh win in its last 10 versus the Blue Jackets. The Ducks, though, have dropped two straight and five of their last eight at home to Columbus.

The Blue Jackets don't have much momentum heading into this one. They have lost five straight, their longest skid since a season-high nine-game slide from December 10-26, and are coming off last night's 6-0 loss at Los Angeles in which they were outshot 35-11. Columbus managed only three shots in the first period and another two in the second.

"That was embarrassing," said the Blue Jackets' R.J. Umberger afterward. "We didn't play smart. We are our own worst enemies out there."

Steve Mason was tagged for four goals on 13 shots and did not survive the first period. Mathieu Garon stopped 20-of-22 shots the rest of the way.

To make matters worse, leading scorer Rick Nash left Monday's loss with a lower-body injury and his status for tonight is unknown. He leads the team with 28 goals and 57 points. Fellow forward Kristian Huselius is unlikely for tonight due to hand injury.

Columbus fell to 3-3-2 since replacing Ken Hitchcock on February 3 with interim head coach Claude Noel and is 13 points out of a playoff spot.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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