Brazil crushes Chile to reach quarterfinals

Soccer Betting Lines

06/28/2010 - Johannesburg, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juan and Luis Fabiano scored in a four-minute stretch late in the first half, and Brazil cruised to a 3-0 win over Chile on Monday to reach the quarterfinals of the FIFA World Cup.

Juan opened the scoring in the 34th minute and Fabiano added his third goal of the tournament in the 38th. Robinho ended the scoring at Free State Stadium in the 59th.

Brazil will play the Netherlands on Friday in the quarterfinals after the Dutch beat Slovakia, 2-1, on Monday.

Chile also lost to Brazil twice in World Cup qualifying, 3-0 and 4-2.

Brazil created more scoring chances from the start, and Gilberto Silva forced an early save from Chile goalkeeper Claudio Bravo inside 10 minutes. Ramires had a speculative effort go off target in the 15th for Brazil, then neither team was very threatening for an extended spell.

The Brazilians returned to form in the 34th minute when Juan reached a corner kick from Maicon and turned it inside the left post from the edge of the six- yard box. Maicon's corner was placed perfectly into a triangle of Brazilians, and Juan rose to head the ball just as it cleared Fabiano.

With Chile still on its heels, Brazil struck again on a counter attack three minutes later. Maicon played a quick ball out of the back to Fabiano, who sent Robinho down the left. Robinho eventually squared the ball to Kaka, who slipped a pass to Fabiano at the edge of the area.

Fabiano turned as he accepted the pass, made one touch to round Bravo and then fired into an empty net for his third goal of the World Cup.

Brazil continued to expose Chile's defense, which was without starting center backs Gary Medel and Waldo Ponce, in the second half.

Ramires made a darting run through midfield and dropped a pass off to Robinho near the top of the area and he curled a first-time shot by Bravo and inside the right post.

Dani Alves' long blast swerved just wide of the upper-right corner in the 61st minute as Brazil pushed for more goals.

Jorge Valdivia drove an 18-yard shot just over the crossbar on a rare scoring chance for Chile, but Kaka was back at it on the other end seconds later with a shot over the bar from 22 yards.

Robinho was denied a second goal in the 74th when Bravo tipped his effort wide of the left post, then Chile actually showed some life in the last 15 minutes.

Suazo had an effort pushed wide by Brazil goalie Julio Cesar in the 75th, then hit the top of the crossbar in the 78th. Chile could not find a goal, though, as it failed to score a goal for the first time in this World Cup.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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